SOURCE: Realogics, Inc.

Do you remember just 2-3 years ago when the Seattle skyline was full of  high-rise construction cranes? That’s not the case anymore.  When it comes to condos, we might not see another project built for 4-5 years.  What does that mean for new construction condo inventory?  Statistically it can be proven that inventory is in decline; here is why:

Let’s examine what the downtown Seattle condo market really looks like. Attached is the graphic provided to UCS (courtesy of Realogics Market Research). Realogics maintains detailed information on the sales of each condominium building.  As you will see in the illustration below, the inventory of newly constructed condominiums is decreasing dramatically.

Clearly the biggest impact on inventory has been the transition of 4 major condo projects to apartments.  These include:

• Expo 62 (114 units in 2008)
• MODA (251 units in 2008)
• Equinox (204 units in 2009)
• Rollin Street (208 units in 2009)
  ****A total of 777 units

The wild card is Volta (formerly known as Alex).  The construction has stopped and at best this could come this year either as condos or as apartments.  For now it has be cited as condos because that’s how it was last presented.  What’s amazing about this situation is that even if it came to market today, we would still have less than 450 new condos to choose from.  From the looks of it, it doesn’t appear that they are doing much with it right now.

In terms of availability by building, from the most to the least, it stacks up like this:

1. Escala
2. Olive 8
3. Gallery
4. Fifteen Twenty-One Second Avenue
5. Enso
6. Volta
7. Four Seasons Private Residences
8. 5th & Madison

Interestingly, two-thirds of the available new condos are in Escala (now 30% sold) and Olive 8 (now 50% sold).  Realogics identifies a unit as being sold as a non-refundable earnest money deposit (pending) or closed.

It is important to note that the title reports are notoriously late with real time information and often show fewer homes sold than actual.

So where does this leave us?  The question becomes, is 450 units or less enough inventory for future demand?  I think not.  As the economy improves, many of those units will be purchased.  I’m sure that eventually Rollin Street and others may come back on the market, but for now, as inventory continues to decline, Seattle may be looking at its next wave of new construction starts in 2012/2013.

It is important to understand that as prices continue to fall, many potential buyers have been renting.  Eventually the increase in rent will drive more consumption of Seattle condominium sales. In addition, what is most fascinating to me is the enormity of going through the construction process. From start to finish it can take up to 5 years.  I will be on the lookout for the first project to break ground.  Until then, as consumers we have about 8 projects to choose from.

Equinox condominiums are located in of one of Seattle’s most eclectic boroughs. Eastlake is a perfect transition between often rowdy U-District and bustling South Lake Union. The neighborhood offers its residents the chance to travel downtown in 5 minutes, but has enough amenities to provide for a fun night all its own. Bars, restaurants and boutiques line Eastlake Ave, the main thoroughfare for the east side of Lake Union. Legendary haunts, like The Zoo Tavern, meld seamlessly with contemporary hotspots like Sitka & Spruce.  Many homes and condos in the area have views that take advantage of the neighborhood’s natural slope toward Lake Union. The layout of the units at the Equinox do their best to maximize a peek at the lake.

Construction at Equinox is currently underway. The 204-unit, steel-framed building should be ready for its new residents in early 2009. Units in the complex range from studios (smallest: under 500 sq ft, priced in the mid-$200′s) to 2-bedroom lofts (over 1300 sq ft, approx. $1M).

Equinox is bringing Belltown-quality amenities (concierge, fitness center, communal great room with kitchen made for entertaining) to Eastlake. A monstrous 8600 sq ft courtyard lets residents commune around a centralized fire pit. The rooftop deck affords a fabulous view not only of the lake, but of the rapidly ascending Seattle skyline and on across to Queen Anne as well. Finish packages continue the high-end, urban flair. The design team of Weber + Thompson have selected Fischer & Paykel and Bosch stainless appliances, not to mention custom cabinetry, to adorn the interiors.

There are myriad floorplans to choose from, most focusing on maximizing space with very open layouts. Expect modern, European-feeling units. Some kitchen islands are even mobile, allowing the owner to create a kitchen that functions most efficiently for him/her. Many units are naturally south- or southwest-facing with huge windows to capture sunlight. The units facing east are the most affordable, and many have large decks or patios. Homeowners dues will be between 50 and 60 cents per square foot.

The Sales Center is located at 1500 Eastlake Ave E (Eastlake & Galer). Open 11-6 daily, the Sales Center has a scale model of the finished product, a full-size sample kitchen and the opportunity to view floorplans. Nearly 60 units were under contract by mid-July.

Quick Facts:

1. Location: 1530 Eastlake Ave E
2. # of Units: 204
3. Website: www.equinoxcondos.com
4. Est. Completion Date:  Early 2009
5. Flooring:
   1. Kitchens:  Hardwood
   2. Living Room/Bedrooms:  Carpet
   3. Bathrooms:  Ceramic Tile
6. Sales Center:  1500 Eastlake Ave E, 2nd Floor
7. Pricing:  $200,000-<$1,000,000
8. Floorplans/Finishes:  Available Online
9. Ceiling Height:  8’8″ – 9’8″
10. Options:  A/C, Eurosliders, Media Systems, Elec. Shades.
11. Structure: Steel & Concrete
12. Insulation/Sound Transmission Prevention
    1. Common Wall-to-Common Wall:
       1. 4 ^{3/4″ _{Acoustical Insulation}}
       2. _{^{2 Layers 5/8″ Drywall, Each Wall}}
       3. _{^{1″ Acoustic Gap}}
    2. Floor-to-Floor:
       1. 1 ^1/2” Gypsum
       2. 10″ Metal Joists
       3. Acoustic Insulation
       4. 1/2″ Resilient Channel (Sound Gap)
       5. 2 Layers 5/8″ Drywall